NBA Western Conference Playoff Picture: Lakers control play-in destiny; Nuggets nearly a lock for top seed

The NBA playoff and play-in races are heating up with just about a month to go on the schedule. Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand entering play on Monday, March 6. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 Game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 Game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets would have to go in the absolute tank to blow the No. 1 seed. With 18 games to play, they hold an effective seven-game lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: 1
  • Current first-round matchup: TBD
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Memphis: Denver has clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play

2. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis' seed feels tenuous now that Ja Morant is out indefinitely. With 19 games to play, the Grizzlies lead the No. 3 Kings by one in the loss column and the No. 4 Suns by four. Looking on the bright side, Memphis has the league's easiest remaining schedule. 

  • Projected seed: 2
  • Current first-round matchup: Winner of Mavericks/Clippers play-in
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Denver: Nuggets have clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader

3. Sacramento Kings

The Kings have won seven of their last 10 and trail the No. 2 Grizzlies by just one game. The Kings hold a three-game lead over the No. 4 Suns, but there are two head-to-head matchups remaining. Our SportsLine model has the Suns ultimately passing Sacramento for the No. 3 seed. 

  • Projected seed: 4
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Memphis: Kings currently own via conference record 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Suns lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Phoenix Suns

The Suns are 3-0 since the Durant trade and have a great shot to pass the No. 3 Kings, whom they trail by three games with two head-to-head matchups left. The Suns lead the No. 5 Warriors by an effective three games with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: 3
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play

5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors continue to struggle on the road, falling to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in L.A. But they have won five of six and hold a one-loss lead over the No. 6 Wolves and No. 7 Mavericks. 

  • Projected seed: 5
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Suns
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Suns have clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Warriors clinched

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are tied in the loss column with No. 7 Dallas and just one up on the No. 8 Clippers and No. 9 Jazz. The good news is the Wolves own the tiebreaker over both those teams, so the cushion is effectively two games. The race to stay above the play-in line is going to be tight. SportsLine doesn't like Minnesota's chances to do so. 

  • Projected seed: 7
  • Current first-round matchup: at Kings
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Dallas: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Wolves clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Wolves clinched

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT

7. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks lost six of their last 10 to fall below the play-in line, tied in the loss column with the No. 6 Wolves, who own the tiebreaker. Dallas trails No. 5 Golden State by just one game but leads the No. 11 Lakers by just two. 

  • Projected seed: 8
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are two back of the No. 5 Warriors, one back of the No. 6 Wolves, and just one up on the No. 9 Pelicans, No. 10 Jazz and No. 11 Lakers. Our SportsLine model likes them to rise above the play-in line. 

  • Projected seed: 6
  • Current first-round matchup: at Mavericks (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Clippers clinched

9. New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is tied in the loss column with the No. 8 Clippers but is also just one game up on the No. 10 Jazz, No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Thunder and No. 13 Blazers. 

  • Projected seed: 9
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Jazz (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves:  Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Jazz clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 OKC: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 13 Portland: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play

10. Utah Jazz

SportsLine projections don't have the Jazz staying out of the lottery for long. They are tied in the loss column with the No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Thunder and No. 13 Blazers. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Current first-round matchup: at New Orleans (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 13 Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

11. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers got a big win over the Warriors on Sunday and are trying to stay in this race long enough for LeBron James to get back. They are tied in the loss column with the No. 10 Jazz with two head-to-head matchups remaining, so they control their own destiny there. They also trail the No. 9 Pelicans by just one with a head-to-head remaining. If they were to win that Game, it would also lock up the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, meaning the Lakers control their own destiny there, too. 

  • Projected seed: 10
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 13 Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are very much in the play-in hunt, tied in the loss column with the No. 10 Jazz and just one back of No. 9 New Orleans. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 13 Portland: OKC clinched

13. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are tied in the loss column with the three teams above them, including the No. 10 Jazz, who they still play one more time. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 OKC: Thunder clinched

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks hold a two-game lead over the Celtics in the loss column. They play one more time on March 30 with the season series tied 1-1. The Bucks lead No. 3 Philly by four in the loss column, which feels pretty safe with 18 to play. 

  • Projected seed: 1
  • Current first-round matchup: TBD
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Boston: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Sixers lead 2-1 with one to play

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics blew big leads to the Nets and Knicks in losing their last two and now trail the top-seeded Bucks by two in the loss column. Boston holds a two-game lead over No. 3 Philadelphia, but that lead is effectively three games with Boston having cliched the tiebreaker. The Celtics should be safe to end up no worse than third, as they lead the No. 4 Cavaliers by six in the loss column. 

  • Projected seed: 2
  • Current first-round matchup: Winner of Heat/Hawks play-in
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Boston clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Cleveland: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play

3. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are effectively three back of the No. 2 Celtics with Boston having clinched the tiebreaker. They lead the No. 4 Cavs by four games. At the moment, the Sixers feel like a good bet to stay at No. 3. 

  • Projected seed: 3
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Brooklyn
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Boston clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Cleveland: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are trying to hold off the No. 5 Knicks, who are just one game back in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Cavs also hold just a two-game lead over the Nets with two more head-to-head matchups remaining. 

  • Projected seed: 4
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. New York
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Boston: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 New York: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play

5. New York Knicks

The Knicks have won nine straight and sit just one back of the No. 4 Cavaliers. New York leads No. 6 Brooklyn by one. The Knicks hold a four-game lead over the No. 7 Heat in their quest to stay above the play-in line, but keep in mind they play the Heat two more times. 

  • Projected seed: 5
  • Current first-round matchup: at Cleveland
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Cleveland: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Miami: Knicks lead 2-0 with two to play

6. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are hanging tough since trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They hold a three-loss lead over the No. 7 Heat to stay above the play-in line, and they trail the No. 5 Knicks by one and No. 4 Cavs by two in the loss column. 

  • Projected seed: 6
  • Current first-round matchup: at Philadelphia
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Cleveland: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 New York: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Miami: Nets lead 2-0 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Atlanta: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT

7. Miami Heat

Miami is three back of No. 6 Brooklyn. The more pressing concern is staying in the 7-8 play-in round so they only have to win one game instead of two to advance. Entering play on Monday, Miami leads No. 8 Atlanta by one, No. 9 Toronto by two, and No. 10 Washington by three in the loss column. 

  • Projected seed: 7
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Hawks (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-0 with two to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Atlanta: Miami leads 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Toronto: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Washington: Miami leads 2-1 with one to play

8. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are four games back of a top-six seed. Like Miami, they are primarily concerned with not falling below the No. 8 seed so they can stay in the first play-in game, thus only having to win once to advance. It could get dicey. The Hawks lead the No. 9 Raptors by just one, and the No. 10 Wizards by two with three head-to-head matchups remaining. 

  • Projected seed: 8
  • Current first-round matchup: at Miami (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Miami: Heat lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Toronto: Atlanta clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Washington: Wizards lead 1-0 with three to play

9. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are one back of No. 8 Atlanta and one up on No. 10 Washington. As for staying above the lottery line, Toronto holds a three-loss advantage over the No. 11 Pacers, and an effective four-game lead over No. 12 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: 10
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Wizards (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Miami: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Atlanta: Hawks clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Washington: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Indiana: Pacers clinched
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Chicago: Raptors clinched

10. Washington Wizards

The Wizards are one back of No. 9 Toronto and two clear of the No. 11 Pacers and No. 12 Bulls. 

  • Projected seed: 9
  • Current first-round matchup: at Toronto (Play-in)
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Toronto: Tied 1-1 with one to play
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Indiana: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Chicago: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

11. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are two back of No. 10 Washington and currently own the tiebreaker. They are tied with the No. 12 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Washington: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Chicago: Pacers clinched

12. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are two back of the No. 10 Wizards and currently own the tiebreaker. They are tied with the No. 11 Pacers by Indiana has sealed the tiebreaker. 

  • Projected seed: Lottery
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Washington: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage
  • Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Indiana: Pacers clinched

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