NCAAF Bowl best bets, odds & game picks including Utah vs Northwestern

After a long and grueling regular season, the college Football postseason is finally here. I went 1-1 in the column last week — bringing me to 26-20 (about 57%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we finished the regular season strong, so let’s replicate that effort this weekend!

The second full weekend of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With the weekend rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bets for the first weekend of bowl season. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the action.

Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 over Utah Utes (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

One of the better spots on the board this week features a Northwestern team that should be extremely motivated to finish off its remarkable 2023 season with a flourish going up against a Utah team that is just trying to make it out of this season unscathed at this point. The Utes have dealt with remarkably poor injury luck all season long, including not having quarterback Cam Rising available for the entirety of the campaign. Along with Rising’s health, the Utes also suffered a tremendous number of injuries on both sides of the ball, including at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and in their defensive secondary. There’s no telling what the ceiling could have been for Utah if it was fully healthy this season, but Kyle Wittingham’s team will have to settle for an underwhelming 8-4 campaign.

Northwestern has exceeded all expectations this season, finishing with a 7-5 record after the Wildcats’ projected win total was just 3 heading into the campaign. Not only will they essentially have their full complement of starters on Saturday, but Utah is going to be without a plethora of players due to injury or the transfer portal. It’s clear that one team wants to be there, while the other might just be going through the motions. Motivation aside, the Wildcats should be able to hang in this Game on both sides, especially given that Utah’s offense is outside the top 100 in passing success rate, EPA per pass and EPA margin. Look for the Wildcats to keep the ball on the ground and rely on their defense to keep things close throughout. This line has ticked down a couple of points since it opened, but I think Northwestern wins outright, so I’ll certainly take the 6.5 points here.

Read our full Utah vs Northwestern predictions

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +10 vs San Jose State Spartans (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 8. 

Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall has committed to NC State and won’t be playing in this game, so backup QB Ethan Vasko will be under center for Tim Beck’s team. The Chanticleers do have a number of other starters in the portal, but it’s unclear how many of them will play in the bowl game at the moment. On the other side, San Jose State will be without its starting left tackle and starting tight end in this game, as both players are already committed to other schools for the 2024 campaign. With that said, how do we attack this game?

For starters, Coastal Carolina should have edges on the ground against a poor San Jose State run defense, especially with Vasko as a dual-threat option at quarterback. There’s also the matter of the motivation advantage that Coastal should have as well. After all, San Jose State was (unfairly) left out of the Mountain West title game in favor of a UNLV team that the Spartans had just thrashed on their home field the week prior. Now, they have to turn around and assume the big favorite role against a Coastal Carolina team that should really care about this game, especially given the fact that this will be the first time many of these players have flown cross country to play a game in Hawaii. I do expect San Jose State’s terrific offense (top 30 in success rate, 3rd in EPA per rush) to score on this poor Coastal Carolina defense. However, it’s hard not to take the points with a motivated underdog that prioritizes keeping the running game. Let’s get to the window with Coastal on Saturday.

Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF bowl season picks for the biggest Games this weekend

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