Blues vs Flames Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

With just a single point separating them in the standings, tonight’s game between the St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames is a big one. We're likely to see two of the best goalies since the break go head-to-head as Jacob Markstrom is set to return and will face Jordan Binnington who is fresh off an 18-save shutout of the Capitals. 

Despite the on-paper great goaltending matchup, the Over is taking money and there’s reason for it... but is it reason enough to hop on the full-Game Over 6.0?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for the Blues vs. Flames on Tuesday, January 23.

Blues vs Flames odds

Blues vs Flames predictions

Jordan Binnington has a 1.99 GAA and .930 SV% since Christmas while Jacob Markstrom has very similar numbers. Markstrom has been out since January 13 and is projected to return tonight, but even with the recent play in net, I’m backing this Over 6.0 tonight at -115 as my best bet — and here’s why.

First off, the market is moving that way with some books already hitting 6.5 at the time of writing. Yes, most games get Over money during the day, but that's usually with 6.5 total and not as much in lower-total games.

Next, and the biggest reason, is the defensive play of both clubs at 5-on-5 since the Christmas break.

The Calgary Flames currently sit 29th in expected goals against/ 60 xGA/60) at even strength and the St. Louis Blues rank one spot better in 28th. Neither offense is lighting it up, but I’m happily betting against goalies playing above their numbers and more stable metrics as 5-on-5 play.

Neither team has a Corsi% above 50% over that stretch, and even with both teams being profitable to the Under over their last 10 games, the poor 5-on-5 play mixed with goaltending above expected has me anticipating some solid high-danger chances from both offenses. 

Markstrom has been off for 10 days so there is no guarantee he'll capture the form he had before his injury while Binnington has allowed four or more goals in 13 of his last 27 starts. Anyone can shutout the Capitals on 18 shots. 

Sometimes it’s better to bet against poor defenses than with great offenses in terms of Over betting, and tonight is one of those times. I’d play this Over 6.0 to -120 before I’d have to get off.  

My best bet: Over 6 (-115 at SIA)

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Blues vs Flames same-game parlay

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Over 5.5

Blues moneyline

+310 at SIA

I'm not taking any big swings here, especially with a decent St. Louis ML at +140.

Moving the total to 5.5 ensures a chance at the Over in 4-2 score as I think if either goalie falters, it will be Markstrom. He hasn't played in two weeks and defenseman Oliver Kylington will be playing his first NHL game since the 2021-22 season.

If you're looking to add to this, possibly look at a Pavel Buchnevich point which is the better value of the top-line players in St. Louis.  

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Blues vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Calgary has taken some early money today, moving the ML to -170 after opening at -160. That might also be because Markstrom is set to return and he's likely worth 10 points minimum vs. backup Dan Vladar. 

These are two fairly even teams in terms of production and defensive play at 5-on-5. Tonight’s likely goaltending matchup is quite even as well. Ultimately, these are two flawed teams and I wouldn’t trust either at -170 or greater.

The Blues have loaded up the top line as Pavel Buchnevich has joined Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas. The Flames will be without Dillon Dube (mental Health) but will likely welcome back defenseman Oliver Kylington (mental Health) who is not a boost to this team’s defensive struggles. 

As mentioned, the total of 6.0 is taking money, and we could see more books move to 6.5 depending on how the day goes.

Blues vs Flames betting trend to know

The St. Louis Blues have hit the 1P game total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Flames.

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Blues vs Flames game info

Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
Date: Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: SN1, BSMW
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