Premier League title race: Who has the hardest run-in?
A stagnant 2022/23 on the red side of the Mersey meant an alternate challenger for Manchester City's throne manifested but Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool are right back in title contention this term.
Mikel Arteta's project inspired a tilt at the summit for much of last term but a stuttering epilogue allowed Pep Guardiola's eventual treble-winners to stroll to a third-straight league title.
Arsenal are poised to be in the mix once again in 2023/24 despite their woes over Christmas, although Liverpool have re-emerged as City's fiercest contender. These two played out memorable title duels in 2018/19 and 2021/22, so it'd be silly to rule out another run-in of drama this time around.
Alongside Arsenal, outsiders Aston Villa and Tottenham have thrown themselves into the mix.
Here's how 90min rates the respective run-ins of the Premier League's top five on a 1-10 difficulty scale (1 being a walk in the park and 10 being a gauntlet).
Liverpool
Date | Matchday | Fixture |
|---|---|---|
16/03/24 | 29 | Everton vs Liverpool |
30/03/24 | 30 | Liverpool vs Brighton |
03/04/24 | 31 | Liverpool vs Sheffield Utd |
06/04/24 | 32 | Man Utd vs Liverpool |
13/04/24 | 33 | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace |
20/04/24 | 34 | Fulham vs Liverpool |
27/04/24 | 35 | West Ham vs Liverpool |
04/05/24 | 36 | Liverpool vs Tottenham |
11/05/24 | 37 | Aston Villa vs Liverpool |
19/05/24 | 38 | Liverpool vs Wolves |
- Current position: 1st
- Games played: 20
- Points: 45
Having exceeded expectations drastically during the first half of the season, Liverpool have put themselves in a position where they can claim their second Premier League title.
Whether they can prevent City lifting an unprecedented fourth-straight title will depend on the availability of four players; Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah. Liverpool's core must be available, especially when the fixture list condenses again once the Europa League knockouts roll around.
Fortunately, their final ten league games aren't too tough. Klopp's men take on bitter rivals Everton and Manchester United away from home, but they're nonetheless games champions should win. Tottenham's visit on Matchday 36 followed by a trip to Villa Park the following week is a tough two-game stretch in crunch time that could make or break their campaign during the last stretch.
Liverpool run-in difficulty rating: 6/10
Manchester City
Date | Matchday | Fixture |
|---|---|---|
16/03/24 | 29 | Brighton vs Man City |
30/03/24 | 30 | Man City vs Arsenal |
03/04/24 | 31 | Man City vs Aston Villa |
06/04/24 | 32 | Crystal Palace vs Man City |
13/04/24 | 33 | Man City vs Luton Town |
20/04/24 | 34 | Tottenham vs Man City |
27/04/24 | 35 | Nottingham Forest vs Man City |
04/05/24 | 36 | Man City vs Wolves |
11/05/24 | 37 | Fulham vs Man City |
19/05/24 | 38 | Man City vs West Ham |
- Current position: 2nd
- Games played: 20
- Points: 43
The signs are ominous for the rest of the division. Man City endured their annual blip before Christmas but are right on Liverpool's tail with Kevin De Bruyne already back fit and firing.
Guardiola's side have the ability to put together imperious winning runs to guide them to glory, just as they did last season, and it wouldn't be a surprise if something similar plays out in 2023/24.
The Cityzens' run-in is hardly the most imposing. The majority of their tough outs will be played at the Etihad, with a trip to bogey team Tottenham on Matchday 34 being their greatest cause for concern. They also visit Selhurst Park at the start of April to face Crystal Palace, who have proved annoying opposition for City in the past.
Man City run-in difficulty rating: 5/10
Aston Villa
Date | Matchday | Fixture |
|---|---|---|
16/03/24 | 29 | West Ham vs Aston Villa |
30/03/24 | 30 | Aston Villa vs Wolves |
03/04/24 | 31 | Man City vs Aston Villa |
06/04/24 | 32 | Aston Villa vs Brentford |
13/04/24 | 33 | Arsenal vs Aston Villa |
20/04/24 | 34 | Aston Villa vs Bournemouth |
27/04/24 | 35 | Aston Villa vs Chelsea |
04/05/24 | 36 | Brighton vs Aston Villa |
11/05/24 | 37 | Aston Villa vs Liverpool |
19/05/24 | 38 | Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa |
- Current position: 3rd
- Games played: 21
- Points: 43
Aston Villa's home form is set to guide them into the Champions League but they must improve on the road if they're to emerge as a title contender.
Unai Emery's side have a fairly mixed bag down the stretch. Crucially, they take on Wolves in a West Midlands derby, Chelsea and Liverpool all at Villa Park, but they'll be away from home against Man City and Arsenal.
While Villa's home record is the best in the Premier League at the time of writing, their away record is only good enough for seventh-best. They'll likely need to snatch points at both the Etihad and Emirates if they're to leave themselves in title contention up until May.
Aston Villa run-in difficulty rating: 7/10
Arsenal
Date | Matchday | Fixture |
|---|---|---|
16/03/24 | 29 | Arsenal vs Chelsea |
30/03/24 | 30 | Man City vs Arsenal |
02/04/24 | 31 | Arsenal vs Luton Town |
06/04/24 | 32 | Brighton vs Arsenal |
13/04/24 | 33 | Arsenal vs Aston Villa |
20/04/24 | 34 | Wolves vs Arsenal |
27/04/24 | 35 | Tottenham vs Arsenal |
04/05/24 | 36 | Arsenal vs Bournemouth |
11/05/24 | 37 | Man Utd vs Arsenal |
19/05/24 | 38 | Arsenal vs Everton |
- Current position: 4th
- Games played: 20
- Points: 40
Arsenal may have endured a woeful blip over the festive period but they certainly shouldn't be ruled out of title contention. Mikel Arteta will welcome the likes of Thomas Partey and Jurrien Timber back to action before the run-in and an avoidance of key injuries will allow the Gunners to mount a title bid.
However, it remains to be seen whether they've got the goalkeeper or firepower to usurp either Liverpool or City.
Their run-in isn't exactly simple, either. Arsenal take on two fallen giants in Chelsea and Man Utd, who'll be keen on scuppering any Gunners charge, and also face City and Tottenham away from home. April contests away at Brighton and Wolves with a home game against Villa sandwiched in between certainly add to Arsenal's tricky conclusion to 2023/24.
Arsenal run-in difficulty rating: 8/10
Tottenham
Date | Matchday | Fixture |
|---|---|---|
16/03/24 | 29 | Fulham vs Tottenham |
30/03/24 | 30 | Tottenham vs Luton Town |
02/04/24 | 31 | West Ham vs Tottenham |
06/04/24 | 32 | Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest |
13/04/24 | 33 | Newcastle vs Tottenham |
20/04/24 | 34 | Tottenham vs Man City |
27/04/24 | 35 | Tottenham vs Arsenal |
04/05/24 | 36 | Liverpool vs Tottenham |
11/05/24 | 37 | Tottenham vs Burnley |
19/05/24 | 38 | Sheffield United vs Tottenham |
- Current position: 5th
- Games played: 21
- Points: 43
Tottenham have had to overcome a ton of adversity to get themselves into a strong position at the start of 2024, although not so many regard Ange Postecoglou's side as genuine title contenders.
Spurs, if their injury bug departs before March, should have their strongest XI which started the campaign superbly available for the run-in. However, they've got a nightmarish fixture list to end the season.
Their epilogue is defined by a horrible four-game stretch in April and May: Newcastle (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (H) and Liverpool (A). Their rather tame schedule in the lead-up to that run could leave Ange's men in with a shout of title glory and they'll certainly deserve it if they emerge for their Matchday 37 game against Burnley unscathed.
For now, Tottenham remain outsiders for the title.
Tottenham run-in difficulty rating: 9/10
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